Slice
Gap-filling top-up round after the pool audit (see consolidated-pool.md line ~65). Two sub-threads: (1) observation-selection-effect correction to “we survived past natural experiments, so it’s safe” reasoning; (2) one additional independent compact-star observational primary for the white-dwarf/neutron-star survival leg.
Sources
Observation-selection / anthropic-shadow correction:
- S-79 - Ćirković, Sandberg & Bostrom 2010, Anthropic Shadow- Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks — the primary, general Bayesian formalization of the effect; explicitly lists collider catastrophes among the event classes it applies to.
- S-78 - Bostrom & Tegmark 2005, How unlikely is a doomsday catastrophe — earlier, narrower primary deriving the anthropic bound on Earth/observer-destroying catastrophe rates specifically; the Nature-published companion piece to S-79’s later, more general treatment.
Compact-star redundancy:
- S-80 - Antoniadis et al. 2013, A Massive Pulsar in a Compact Relativistic Binary — independent (different system, Shapiro-delay + optical spectroscopy) confirmation of a ~2.01 M☉ neutron star surviving intact, alongside the already-pooled Demorest et al. 2010 measurement.
search_scope
Grep of existing pool + orientation notes for “bostrom/tegmark/doomsday/anthropic shadow/cirkovic/antoniadis/observation-select” (none of the true targets pre-existed — only false-positive substring hits on “Antoniadis” in S-17’s title and “anthropic” not appearing elsewhere). WebSearch for “anthropic shadow observation selection effect collider safety cosmic ray argument LHC” and a second query specifically hunting for a Ćirković/Bostrom paper naming colliders/particle accelerators.
exclusions
- No standalone primary paper applying the selection-effect correction specifically to collider/cosmic-ray safety exists as a separate artifact: Ćirković, Sandberg & Bostrom 2010 (S-79) itself lists “collider catastrophes” as one of its example event classes, so a search for a distinct collider-specific selection-effect paper turned up nothing beyond S-79/S-78 — not minted separately since it would duplicate S-79’s coverage rather than add a new primary.
- Considered a second compact-star observational primary (independent WD cooling-age or WD catalog paper) beyond Antoniadis et al. but the brief’s own examples (Kepler et al. 2007, Hansen et al. 2007, Demorest et al. 2010) were already in the pool, and one additional NS-mass primary (Antoniadis) was judged sufficient for the requested “1-2” redundancy — did not spend budget minting a second.
Notes
Small, targeted slice: 3 nodes minted (S-78, S-79, S-80), ~6 sources read/skimmed (the 3 minted plus checking S-17/S-44/S-66/S-70/S-61 abstracts to confirm no overlap). No gaps beyond the one noted above (absence of a collider-specific selection-effect primary, which appears to genuinely not exist as separate literature — the general anthropic-shadow papers are the load-bearing nodes for that argument leg).