O-23 - The Moon, unshielded by any atmosphere, has endured billions of years of cosmic-ray heavy-ion bombardment and remains ordinary matter
Firmly-established background fact (no dataset of this paper); the lunar strangelet argument rests on it. Unlike Earth-based bounds, no atmospheric shielding caveat applies, and both projectile (cosmic-ray iron) and target (lunar-surface iron) are heavy ions, so the collisions are genuine analogues of collider heavy-ion collisions.
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Why this is evidence
H-29 predicts that any (meta)stable negative strangelet ever produced near rest in a lunar-surface heavy-ion collision and stopped in the regolith would have run away and converted the Moon to strange matter — so the Moon persisting as ordinary matter after billions of years of unshielded iron-on-iron exposure is improbable under H-29 to the degree cosmic rays could ever have made such a stopping strangelet. H-40 predicts lunar persistence regardless: growth halts before macroscopic conversion. The discrimination is real but conditional — it runs through the chance that production-plus-stopping ever occurred on the Moon (rapidity/stopping caveats live in the attached arguments), so the direction is toward H-40 with strength set by that antecedent.
Likelihood
# E-30 (HC-8) — lone edge, one observation O-23 "Moon persists as ordinary matter under heavy-ion
# cosmic-ray bombardment". Members in HC-8.hypotheses order [H-29 runaway, H-40 no-runaway];
# exhaustive_by_construction, no residual. Conditioning: HC-8 already assumes a (meta)stable negative
# strangelet exists / stops / is negative; this edge discriminates only through whether, over the lunar
# exposure, a produce-AND-stop event ever occurred and (under H-29) ran away. Anchor H-40 = 1 (rule 7).
lik_moon_H40 = 1.0 # anchor: under no-runaway the Moon persists with certainty regardless of any
# strangelet stopped in the regolith — the observation is guaranteed
lik_moon_H29 = 0.15 # 0.15x: under runaway, persistence requires that NO stoppable dangerous strangelet
# was ever produced-and-stopped in ~1e28 lunar Fe-Fe collisions. A-59 (approved):
# lunar survival bounds that per-collision probability < 2e-11 even with a 1e-6
# rapidity-suppression factor; A-32 (approved): RHIC Cu+Cu thermal and velocity data
# validate the two stopping assumptions. Not lower because the bound's sole escape —
# production ONLY at exactly central rapidity (products too fast to stop) — is NOT
# closed by this body. E-30's own increment is the lunar heavy-ion STOPPING channel
# (docked for that rapidity loophole); it is complementary to E-32's metastability
# loophole, not a re-count of the same "no conversion observed" logic.
t_moon = 0.82 # cap = trust_score(O-23 source S-1) = 0.82; "Moon persists as ordinary matter" is a
# generally-known robust fact with no dating/selection weakness — held at the cap
evidence("HC-8", ["O-23"], [lik_moon_H29, lik_moon_H40], t=t_moon)