What the analysis says
Conditional on the QG scale being within collider reach, this cluster asks what the LHC shows first: H-3 thermal black holes + Regge, H-5 RS1 spin-2 graviton resonances, H-15 enhanced transverse two-body final states, H-34 residual. The prior [0.2261, 0.1106, 0.5025, 0.1608] already favours H-15 on the threshold-mass argument. The single link E-1 — O-20’s steeply falling parton luminosities, sharpened by A-11 - Thermality criteria require black-hole masses several times the Planck scale, out of reach of near-threshold LHC production — does all the updating, concentrating production just above threshold (H-15’s regime) and suppressing H-3, giving posterior [0.1181, 0.1053, 0.6407, 0.1359].
What the model may not capture
The members aren’t cleanly exclusive as first signatures: a two-body enhancement and a graviton bump can coexist, with “seen first” set by reach rather than by which world is true — the crisp posterior split hides that. H-15 rests almost entirely on one source (Meade-Randall 2008), and its prior argument and its lone update share that origin, so they are less independent than the arithmetic implies. Is the answer on the list? Extra-dimension monojet + missing-energy graviton emission (distinct from H-5’s resonances) is a headline channel the members under-name and would be no less consequential.
What would help
An independent (non-Meade-Randall) treatment of signature-ordering — exists, unread. Whether H-15 and H-3/H-5 are separable as “first” at all — unclear.
Confusions and contradictions
The tilt to H-15 sets a single 2008 paper against the more-cited Dimopoulos-Landsberg black-hole-factory narrative; the field never converged, so this is a defensible minority read, not a settled verdict. (Post-run LHC saw none of these, consistent with the scale lying out of reach — orthogonal to this conditional cluster.)