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O-13 - Castle Bravo (1954) yielded 15 Mt against a predicted 4-8 Mt because the model neglected lithium-7 reactions

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Properties9
type
observation
id
O-13
statement
The 1954 Castle Bravo nuclear test yielded 15 megatons against a predicted 4-8 megatons because the Los Alamos model of the explosion neglected the contribution of lithium-7 reactions, which supplied the bulk of the energy - a model failure inside a carefully checked, high-stakes hard-science calculation.
generally_known
true
data_basis
—
source
S-44 - Ord, Hillerbrand and Sandberg, Probing the Improbable
locator
§3.3 ¶1
quote
The device achieved 15 megatons of yield instead of the predicted 4-8 megatons.
link_state
linked

Used by the paper as its flagship historical example of model (as opposed to theory or calculation) failure: the underlying theory of the relevant nuclear reactions was understood, but the model of which reactions mattered was too narrow. Fallout affected the Marshall Islands and killed a Japanese fisherman.

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