If SARS-CoV-2 entered via infected live mammals held at specific wildlife stalls, environmental contamination should (i) concentrate spatially where those animals were kept, (ii) co-occur on swabs with the biological material of those species, and (iii) include both circulating lineages if both were being sold. All three hold in the dataset. This makes the data more likely under wildlife-market emergence than under a diffuse or non-market source. Caveat for validity: the same west-wing spatial signal could also be produced by an infected human working or shedding in the wildlife section, so co-location is strongly suggestive but not by itself proof that an animal, rather than a human, was the shedding source.
Validity assessment — approved (checked)
Reconstruction. The conclusion is the evidential one — “raising the probability of wildlife-associated market emergence” — not a proof. Load-bearing step: the three co-occurring features (west-wing spatial concentration, co-occurrence with wildlife-species genetic material, both lineages present) are jointly more expected under “infected wildlife at those stalls seeded the outbreak” than under a diffuse/non-market source, hence P(data | wildlife emergence) > P(data | alternative) and the posterior on wildlife emergence rises.
Evaluation. The chief undercutting defeater — an infected human working/shedding in the wildlife section reproduces the same west-wing signal — is the one the argument itself flags. Crucially that defeater only blocks a proof claim; it does not overturn the raises-probability claim, because the co-location with abundant wildlife-species material is more probable under an animal source (expected) than under a human source (coincidental), so the likelihood ratio still exceeds 1. The statement is already stated in the surviving weaker form (“raising the probability”), so no correction is needed. The strength of the update, and whether the wildlife-material co-location is as discriminating as claimed, are priced downstream; the inferential direction holds.