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H-16 - SARS-CoV-2 early lineages A and B are better explained by a single introduction than by two

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Properties8
type
hypothesis
id
H-16
state
active
question
Did the two early SARS-CoV-2 lineages A and B arise from one or from two separate zoonotic introductions into humans?
statement
Once Pekar et al. 2022's Bayesian calculation is corrected for its conditionalization error, its own model and data favour a single successful introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into humans over two independent introductions, i.e. early lineages A and B most plausibly share one spillover / human MRCA, consistent with Lv et al. 2024's reading of more complete data.
cluster
HC-2
source
S-22 - Weissman 2026 — a fundamental Bayesian error in the multiple-introductions claim
locator
Section 'Statistical Bottom Line', p.59-60

Weissman stresses this bears only on P2022’s specific two-introduction claim and is not itself proof of a research-related origin.

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