EpiStack

H-11 - Sustained human-to-human transmission was occurring among close contacts by mid-December 2019

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Properties9
type
hypothesis
id
H-11
state
dropped
question
When did sustained human-to-human transmission begin in the Wuhan outbreak?
statement
Human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus was already occurring among close contacts from about the middle of December 2019.
drop_reason
Descriptive early-transmission-dynamics fact (sustained human-to-human transmission by mid-December 2019); its evidence (O-7, O-9, O-10) bears on the outbreak timeline and attaches directly to clusters at step 5. Asserts no distinct answer to origin, introduction-count, or market-role.
source
S-13 - Li et al. 2020 NEJM — early transmission dynamics, first 425 confirmed cases
locator
Discussion; conclusions
quote
there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019

Inferred from clustering within families/close contacts in the line-list; bears on how far back the human epidemic extends and how quickly it spread from any point source.

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added after the FLF submission deadline

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