H-18 - The prior probability of a research-related pandemic origin in 2019 is on the order of 1 in 100 to 1 in 200
Properties8
type
hypothesis
id
H-18
state
dropped
question
What is the prior/base-rate probability that a novel pandemic arises from a research-related incident rather than zoonosis?
statement
Weissman estimates the pre-evidence prior probability of a research-related SARS-CoV-2 origin in 2019 at roughly 1/100 to 1/200 (a ~0.2-1%/yr major-leak base rate per relevant lab, conditioned on about a 50% chance DEFUSE-type work was underway at WIV), giving starting prior odds near 1/70 favouring zoonosis, i.e. a lab origin is a priori uncommon but far from negligible.
drop_reason
Numeric base-rate/prior parameter for a research-related origin, not a candidate origin answer; it feeds step 7's origin prior rather than clustering as a member (recorded in structure.md as the prior anchor).