EpiStack

H-7 - No substantial cryptic human circulation of SARS-CoV-2 before December 2019

1 min read

Properties9
type
hypothesis
id
H-7
state
dropped
question
How long before December 2019, if at all, was SARS-CoV-2 circulating cryptically in humans?
statement
SARS-CoV-2 was not circulating substantially in humans before December 2019; epidemic simulations consistent with the observed genomic diversity imply a median of zero COVID-19 hospitalizations by 1 December 2019 and only a few cumulative infections at the tMRCA.
drop_reason
Emergence-timing corollary (no substantial cryptic human circulation before December 2019); its evidence (tMRCA dating O-6, early-case timing O-7) attaches directly to HC-1/HC-2 at step 5. Asserts no distinct MECE answer to the origin, introduction-count, or market-role sub-questions, so it clusters nowhere as a member.
source
S-1 - Pekar et al. 2022 — molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2
locator
Results, epidemic simulations; Discussion
quote
We do not see evidence for substantial cryptic circulation before December 2019

Simulated epidemics matched to the data show a median of three cumulative infections at the tMRCA (95% HPD 1-18) and median zero hospitalizations by 1 Dec 2019, arguing against a long pre-December cryptic phase.

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