Stoyan & Chiu reconstruct Worobey et al.’s Monte Carlo procedure (1,000 inhomogeneous-Poisson simulations with intensity proportional to residential population density) and compute the p-value for the market being the “center” of the early-case cloud under three center definitions and four case subset sizes.
| Center definition | n=155 | n=150 | n=100 | n=80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centroid (mean) | 0.030 | 0.024 | 0.060 | 0.122 |
| Center-point | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.043 | 0.068 |
| Mode | 0.070 | 0.072 | 0.155 | 0.200 |
Significance is at best marginal at the full sample and disappears as the sample is trimmed, showing the market-as-center result is not robust. (Worobey’s own reported median market-to-case distance for the 155 cases was 16.11 km.)