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O-21 - Pekar 2022 reported two-introduction Bayes factor fell from ~60 to ~4.3 after the 2024 coding-error erratum

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Properties8
type
observation
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O-21
statement
In Pekar et al. 2022 the originally reported Bayes factor favouring a two-successful-introduction model over a single-introduction model was about 60; after three coding errors flagged post-publication by McCowan were corrected in a 2024 online erratum, the reported Bayes factor fell to about 4.3 in the current version of record, which remains its headline support for separate introductions of lineages A and B.
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source
S-22 - Weissman 2026 — a fundamental Bayesian error in the multiple-introductions claim
locator
Section 'Context: Why does it matter?', p.48-49
quote
The corrections reduced the likelihood ratio favoring two introductions from ~60 in the original version to a less compelling ~4.3 in the current version.
data_basis

Weissman re-reads Pekar et al. 2022 (P2022) as the data basis; these figures describe P2022’s own reported result (original ~60, post-erratum ~4.3), not a new dataset.

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