What the analysis says
The cluster asks whether intact Grade A shell eggs are the major, internally (trans-ovarian) contaminated vehicle of the US Salmonella enteritidis epidemic — members H-11 - Trans-ovarian (internal, pre-shell) contamination, not shell contamination, drives the SE egg epidemic (route facet), H-12 - Intact Grade A shell eggs are a major vehicle of the US Salmonella enteritidis epidemic (magnitude facet), and residual negation H-58 - Some other egg-Salmonella account; from a deliberately modest 1988-framing outside-view prior [0.275, 0.392, 0.333], the single surveillance group CG-32 - HC-12 joint over O-25+O-26+O-27 (S-20: 77% of vehicle-identified NE outbreaks traced to intact Grade A eggs, SE egg-associated 44% vs 15% for other serotypes, bulk-egg cultures SE-positive 10% NE vs 0% elsewhere) crushes the residual to posterior [0.399, 0.472, 0.129].
What the model may not capture
H-11 and H-12 are complementary facets of one thesis priced as exclusive members, so the route/magnitude probabilities are not independent readings; the residual’s near-elimination matches a record that has since 1988 fully confirmed internal trans-ovarian contamination, so out-of-model mass is negligible here.
What would help
Post-2000 egg-SE attribution showing the channel persists after refrigeration/vaccination controls — exists, unread; nothing would move the near-settled verdict.
Confusions and contradictions
None material: the three surveillance streams (national serotype contrast, NE outbreak attribution, direct egg-culture geography) converge.