EpiStack

orchestrator-log

7 min read

Orchestrator log (step 0)

Test run, N=5, LHC black-holes. Fast shakedown; minimum children; TEST-RUN NOTICE appended to every brief; blockers/majors → problem-log.md; end with ## Ranked summary there.

Plan (children per step): 1a:1 opus ✓ · 1b:3 sonnet · 1c:1 opus · 2a:2 opus · 2b:1 opus · 3: 1 extractor + 1 consolidator · 4a:1, 4b:1 · 5: 1/cluster + consolidator · 6: per batch_arguments.py · 7: 1/cluster · 8: per batch_likelihoods.py · run.py gate · 9: 1/cluster · 10: 1.

Progress

  1. 1a done → agent-notes/orientation/1a-search-plan.md (3 slices: A official safety case 7w/14r, B empirical bounds 7w/14r, C critics+methodology 6w/12r).
  2. 1b: 3 searchers spawned (background).
  3. 1b-A done: 8 sources S-6,7,9,11-15 (+1 over budget, ADD 1998 “if cheap”). MAJOR logged: 1a fabricated LSAG byline (real: Ellis, Giudice, Mangano, Tkachev, Wiedemann); corrected on S-7. NB: prior full run of same case exists at analyses/black-holes/ — id-collision/read-wrong-dir risk flagged by searchers.
  4. 1b-B done: 7 sources S-1..5, S-8, S-10 (G&M 2008, Hut-Rees, Busza+, Dar+, Auger spectrum, lunar strangelet search, Kawka WD survey). Gap noted: no single citable neutron-star dataset. MAJOR logged: sibling-dir confusion risk (analyses/black-holes vs analysis-tests/black-holes1).
  5. 1b-C done: 8 sources S-16..23 (Plaga, G&M reply, Rössler, lawsuit, LA-602, Ord+, Kent, Tegmark-Bostrom).
  6. 1c done: 0 duplicates, collision-control held, no top-up needed. Pool file: agent-notes/orientation/1c-consolidated-pool.md. New MAJOR logged: step-01 mode file lacks 1c output spec.
  7. Step-1 Checks gated ✓ (mechanical pass: 23 files, ids S-1..23 unique, all keys, no banned fields, 3 searcher orientation notes + plan + pool).
  8. 2a: two scorers spawned (opus; slices S-1..12 / S-13..23).
  9. 2a S-13..23 done: 0 D nodes (theory/legal/methodology slice), S-17 data_basis→S-1. Heads-up for 2b: theory corpus, trust caps ~0.85-0.88 → default 0.8 baseline compresses combined_score toward 0 (S-23 exactly 0.0); 2b should tune baseline / use coverage-include.
  10. 2a S-1..12 done: D-1 minted (cosmic-ray survival premise; inbound S-1/2/3/4/6/7/9). Scorer wrote short-form [[S-N]] links → orchestrator normalized all to full-filename form; MAJOR logged (mode-file tables vs SKILL.md format ambiguity).
  11. SPEED REGIME (Simon, mid-run): session relaunched at effort high; every child brief now carries a SPEED CAP block (tool-call hard cap, single pass, no self-validation, terse). New agent types epistack-high/epistack-med (.claude/agents/) for effort control; med for mechanical steps (3-consolidator, 4a, 5-consolidator, 9), high elsewhere.
  12. 2b done (opus, 9 calls): curated S-1, S-5, S-13, S-14, S-23; baseline 0.6; S-1 swap-in over S-21 logged; 18 → sources/non-curated/. Step-2 Checks gated ✓ mechanically.
  13. Step 3: two extractors spawned (S-1+S-5 / S-13+S-14+S-23), epistack-high, ≤14 nodes & ≤30 calls each.
  14. Extractor S-13/14/23 done: O-8/9/10, H-3/4/5, A-4..7, D-2 straggler (planet-formation-time distribution). MAJOR logged: no schema slot for cross-paper argument attachment (A-6 attacks D-1/S-1 evidence, prose-only).
  15. Extractor S-1/S-5 done: O-1..7, H-1/2, A-1..3. Step-3 consolidator: no-op. Step-3 Checks gated ✓ (22 O/H/A nodes; my first check-script attachment regex had a bug, attachments all fine).
  16. 4a: no-op, H-1..5 active (23s). 4b: HC-1 (H-1,H-2,H-6 res) fate/danger; HC-2 (H-4,H-7) evaporation; HC-3 (H-3,H-8,H-9 res) TeV gravity; HC-4 (H-5,H-10) exogenous bound; H-6..10 constructed/residual. Step-4 Checks gated ✓.
  17. Step 5: 4 cluster children spawned (epistack-high, ≤20 calls each). Consolidator (epistack-med) next: attach_argument_backlinks.py → build_correlation_groups.py → link_state/orphans → check_missing_evidence_links.py.
  18. Step-5 children done: E-1..E-4→HC-1, E-7..E-9→HC-2, E-5→HC-3, E-6→HC-4. Two children logged the same MAJOR (create_node.py stdin/{{ID}} contract undocumented in step-05; E-1 and E-6 ids fixed by hand — VERIFY at gate). Consolidator done: 8 edges got arguments, 0 args orphaned; CG-1 (HC-1: E-2/E-3/E-4) + CG-2 (HC-2: E-8/E-9); link_state set, orphans O-5/6/7/9 → observations-and-facts/orphan/; missing-links check clean.
  19. ⏸ PAUSED HERE by Simon (usage limit), 2026-07-20, after step-5 consolidation. NOT yet done: step-5 Checks gate (incl. verifying E-1/E-6 hand-fixed ids + full-filename links on edges). RESUME PLAN: (a) gate step-5 checks mechanically; (b) step 6: run batch_arguments.py → 1 child per ≤20-arg batch (7 args → 1 child, epistack-high); gate; (c) step 7: 1 tiny child per cluster ×4 (epistack-high, priors + used_for_prior marks + no_observation_arguments.py); (d) step 8: batch_likelihoods.py → 1 child per unit (CG-1, CG-2 joint; lone edges E-1/E-5/E-6/E-7 in ≤3-batches, minus any used_for_prior); (e) gate: runner/run.py prints per-cluster posteriors; (f) step 9: 1 review child per cluster ×4; (g) step 10: 1 report child; (h) dedupe + append ## Ranked summary to problem-log.md (BLOCKERs then MAJORs; entries so far: ~7 logged: LSAG-byline fabrication (1a), sibling-dir collision risk, 1c-spec missing, link-format ambiguity, cross-paper-argument gap (step 3), create_node stdin/{{ID}} undocumented ×2 (dedupe)). All children get TEST-RUN NOTICE + SPEED CAP blocks verbatim from earlier briefs; epistack-med for mechanical, epistack-high for judgment.
  20. RESUMED (fresh session via agent-notes/CONTINUATION.md). Step-5 Checks gated ✓ mechanically: 9 edges, unique (from,to) pairs, links resolve, filenames name from/to ids, CG-1/CG-2 members↔group fields consistent, link_state + orphan dirs correct, E-1/E-6 hand-fixed ids fine; only nit: E-7/8/9 had quoted id: "E-N" — normalized by hand (not logged, minor).
  21. Step 6 done (1 epistack-high child, 17 calls): A-1/2/4/7 approved+checked, A-5 approved+trusted, A-3 + A-6 corrected+checked (A-3: “directly excludes” → “direct evidence subject to observer-selection correction”; A-6: “(or any observed body)” narrowed — distant WD/NS survival keeps evidential force). Step-6 Checks gated ✓ mechanically (statuses+reasons complete, ## Original present ×2, affects_* untouched). No problem-log entries.
  22. Step 7: 4 prior children spawned in parallel (epistack-high, ≤20 calls). Briefs carry per-cluster inbound edges + CG all-or-none marking rule (CG-1=E-2/3/4, CG-2=E-8/9) + no-observation args w/ step-6 statuses (HC-2:A-5, HC-3:A-4, HC-4:A-6-corrected; HC-1:none); children skip run.py (orchestrator gates).
  23. Step-7 children done, gate ✓: exactly one ## Prior per HC; run.py clean with posterior==prior — HC-1 [0.31,0.575,0.115] (H-1 danger/H-2 no-risk/H-6 res), HC-2 [0.891,0.109], HC-3 [0.03,0.94,0.03], HC-4 [0.504,0.496]. Only E-5 marked used_for_prior (lone edge; HC-3 child overrode E-5’s body remark per step-7 partition authority). HC-4’s w_H10=1−w_H5 is legitimate: exhaustive_by_construction: true, no residual. No problem-log entries from step 7.
  24. Step 8: batch_likelihoods.py → 3 units (CG-1 joint E-2/3/4→HC-1; CG-2 joint E-8/9→HC-2; batch-1 lone E-1/E-6/E-7). 3 epistack-high children spawned in parallel; briefs carry already-accounted-for lists + step-6 statuses + t-cap rule.
  25. Step-8 children done: CG-1 lik [0.10,1.0,0.55] t=0.74; CG-2 lik [1.0,0.468] t=0.74; E-1 [0.1,1.0,0.6] t=0.74; E-6 [0.7,0.15] t=0.8; E-7 [1.0,0.5] t=0.74. Block placement ✓ (blocks only on CG-1/CG-2/E-1/E-6/E-7). Runner gate: FIRST FAILED — run.py banned-token scan matched the word “open” inside a comment in E-7’s block; logged MAJOR (scan should strip comments), orchestrator reworded comment. Then ✓, deterministic across 2 runs: HC-1 [0.0354,0.8882,0.0764]; HC-2 [0.9561,0.0439]; HC-3 [0.03,0.94,0.03] (0 evidence blocks — all in prior via E-5); HC-4 [0.7615,0.2385]. Batch-1 child flagged unlogged nit: E-6 body says H-10→early-formed planets, A-7 says late — direction of update unaffected; passed to HC-4 reviewer.
  26. Step 9: 4 review children spawned in parallel (epistack-med, ≤15 calls), briefs quote posteriors + movers + step-6 audit signals (A-5 trusted for HC-2; E-5-in-prior for HC-3; E-6/A-7 early-vs-late nit for HC-4).
  27. Step-9 children done, gate ✓ (4 reviews, type/cluster frontmatter, 4 sections each, runner posteriors byte-identical). Two more MAJORs logged by children: harness Write-tool refusal of review artifacts (heredoc workaround); A-7-vs-E-6 hazard-model contradiction passed step-6 checked-gate.
  28. Step 10 done (epistack-high, 16 calls): main report at analysis root, 1801 words, 15/15 wikilinks resolve, gate ✓. Bottom line: effectively-yes for micro black holes (0.94 no-production / 0.9561 evaporates / 0.8882 harmless-if-trapped; composed danger ~1e-4, child’s own judgment), but “truly put to rest” fails an independence test — one untraced theory pillar (A-5) + one motivated paper (S-1/D-1, trust 0.74) carry nearly everything; strangelets/vacuum decay unmodelled. Priced drivers: S-1 trust 0.74→0.3 moves HC-1 danger 0.0354→0.1663. Child logged MAJOR: step-10 consumes external_consensus that no step produces.
  29. Ranked summary appended to problem-log.md: 0 BLOCKERs, 10 deduped MAJORs (top: create_node stdin contract; Write-tool artifact refusal; runner banned-token-in-comments; external_consensus interface gap). RUN COMPLETE. Resume-leg wall-clock ≈ 25 min (11:45–12:10), 12 children (1+4+3+4 + step-10… = 1 step-6, 4 step-7, 3 step-8, 4 step-9, 1 step-10 = 13).

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