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H-13 - Judge Eric Stansifer- a WIV gain-of-function lab leak is the less likely origin (P about 0.075%, ~1-in-1300)

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Properties9
type
hypothesis
id
H-13
state
merged
question
What was the origin of SARS-CoV-2 — zoonotic spillover (at the Huanan market) or a lab leak (gain-of-function research at the WIV)?
statement
Stansifer's worked Bayesian table assigns the lab-leak hypothesis (SARS-CoV-2 from gain-of-function research at the WIV) a posterior P(LL|evidence) about 0.075% (~1-in-1300), while cautioning the precise number is not to be taken in earnest and that dampening the inputs for uncertainty still cannot push the probability across the 50% line.
merged_into
H-41 - Natural zoonotic spillover with no research involvement
source
S-70 - Judge Eric Stansifer's written decision
locator
§7.6 Conclusion (final table)
quote
P (LL|O) = 0.07529%

Eric defines LL narrowly as “covid resulted from gain-of-function research in WIV”. His final total Bayes factor is 0.001255 (log-odds -7.19), giving P(LL|O)=0.07529%, i.e. ~1-in-1300. He explicitly does not endorse the precise figure but maintains the qualitative conclusion (strong zoonotic) is robust.

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