Folder: v1/analyses/covid/hypotheses/merged

Jul 23, 2026

H-1 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 was an accidental lab escape of a gain-of-function-engineered virus (~89%)

Jul 23, 2026

H-10 - The Huanan market was the initial epicenter, with human-to-human spread taking over

Jul 23, 2026

H-12 - Judge Eric Stansifer- zoonotic spillover at the Huanan Seafood Market is the more likely origin (high confidence)

Jul 23, 2026

H-13 - Judge Eric Stansifer- a WIV gain-of-function lab leak is the less likely origin (P about 0.075%, ~1-in-1300)

Jul 23, 2026

H-17 - SARS-CoV-2 most likely originated from a research-related incident rather than natural zoonosis (Weissman synthesis)

Jul 23, 2026

H-2 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 was an engineered bioweapon deliberately released (~4.5%)

Jul 23, 2026

H-20 - SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to the Huanan market via cold-chain - frozen imported products

Jul 23, 2026

H-21 - The Huanan market was the early epicenter of the pandemic via the live-wildlife trade

Jul 23, 2026

H-22 - SARS-CoV-2's furin cleavage site was inserted via DEFUSE-type gain-of-function engineering at the WIV-EcoHealth-UNC consortium

Jul 23, 2026

H-23 - Susceptible wildlife sold at Huanan market wildlife stall A (raccoon dogs and-or related mammals) were the intermediate host of the SARS-CoV-2 spillover

Jul 23, 2026

H-24 - SARS-CoV-2 emerged at the Huanan market rather than circulating in the Wuhan community beforehand

Jul 23, 2026

H-25 - Pangolins and bats were not the Huanan-market intermediate host or vector

Jul 23, 2026

H-26 - The Wuhan market wildlife trade was a viable SARS-CoV-2 spillover route

Jul 23, 2026

H-27 - US intelligence- the FBI and DOE assess a lab-associated Wuhan origin of COVID-19 as most likely

Jul 23, 2026

H-28 - US intelligence- a plurality of tasked agencies assess a natural animal origin of COVID-19 as most likely (low confidence)

Jul 23, 2026

H-3 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 was a naturally-evolved virus contracted by researchers (zoonotic collection, ~3.2%)

Jul 23, 2026

H-31 - SARS-CoV-2 arose by natural evolution, not laboratory engineering

Jul 23, 2026

H-32 - SARS-CoV-2's human-adapted features arose by natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

Jul 23, 2026

H-33 - Some SARS-CoV-2 features arose by natural selection during cryptic human-to-human transmission after an early spillover

Jul 23, 2026

H-34 - SARS-CoV-2 originated as an infectious clone assembled in vitro (a reverse-genetics system)

Jul 23, 2026

H-35 - SARS-CoV-2's restriction map was designed to enable RBD swaps and furin-site insertion at S1-S2

Jul 23, 2026

H-36 - Wild bat sarbecoviruses able to infect humans via hACE2 without adaptation circulate in the Indochinese peninsula

Jul 23, 2026

H-37 - SARS-CoV-2's human-ACE2-binding RBD and backbone arose by natural recombination among wild bat viruses

Jul 23, 2026

H-38 - SARS-CoV-2's furin cleavage site was acquired separately, by a route not represented in the closest bat relatives

Jul 23, 2026

H-39 - SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory-engineered chimera (RaTG13-like backbone + pangolin-like RBD + site-directed furin site)

Jul 23, 2026

H-4 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 arose by natural zoonotic spillover (~3.2%)

Jul 23, 2026

H-40 - SARS-CoV-2's RBD-hACE2 fit was perfected by serial passage in cell culture or humanized-ACE2 animals

Jul 23, 2026

EpiStack

Explorer

Folder: v1/analyses/covid/hypotheses/merged

H-1 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 was an accidental lab escape of a gain-of-function-engineered virus (~89%)

H-10 - The Huanan market was the initial epicenter, with human-to-human spread taking over

H-12 - Judge Eric Stansifer- zoonotic spillover at the Huanan Seafood Market is the more likely origin (high confidence)

H-13 - Judge Eric Stansifer- a WIV gain-of-function lab leak is the less likely origin (P about 0.075%, ~1-in-1300)

H-17 - SARS-CoV-2 most likely originated from a research-related incident rather than natural zoonosis (Weissman synthesis)

H-2 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 was an engineered bioweapon deliberately released (~4.5%)

H-20 - SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to the Huanan market via cold-chain - frozen imported products

H-21 - The Huanan market was the early epicenter of the pandemic via the live-wildlife trade

H-22 - SARS-CoV-2's furin cleavage site was inserted via DEFUSE-type gain-of-function engineering at the WIV-EcoHealth-UNC consortium

H-23 - Susceptible wildlife sold at Huanan market wildlife stall A (raccoon dogs and-or related mammals) were the intermediate host of the SARS-CoV-2 spillover

H-24 - SARS-CoV-2 emerged at the Huanan market rather than circulating in the Wuhan community beforehand

H-25 - Pangolins and bats were not the Huanan-market intermediate host or vector

H-26 - The Wuhan market wildlife trade was a viable SARS-CoV-2 spillover route

H-27 - US intelligence- the FBI and DOE assess a lab-associated Wuhan origin of COVID-19 as most likely

H-28 - US intelligence- a plurality of tasked agencies assess a natural animal origin of COVID-19 as most likely (low confidence)

H-3 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 was a naturally-evolved virus contracted by researchers (zoonotic collection, ~3.2%)

H-31 - SARS-CoV-2 arose by natural evolution, not laboratory engineering

H-32 - SARS-CoV-2's human-adapted features arose by natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer

H-33 - Some SARS-CoV-2 features arose by natural selection during cryptic human-to-human transmission after an early spillover

H-34 - SARS-CoV-2 originated as an infectious clone assembled in vitro (a reverse-genetics system)

H-35 - SARS-CoV-2's restriction map was designed to enable RBD swaps and furin-site insertion at S1-S2

H-36 - Wild bat sarbecoviruses able to infect humans via hACE2 without adaptation circulate in the Indochinese peninsula

H-37 - SARS-CoV-2's human-ACE2-binding RBD and backbone arose by natural recombination among wild bat viruses

H-38 - SARS-CoV-2's furin cleavage site was acquired separately, by a route not represented in the closest bat relatives

H-39 - SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory-engineered chimera (RaTG13-like backbone + pangolin-like RBD + site-directed furin site)

H-4 - Rootclaim- SARS-CoV-2 arose by natural zoonotic spillover (~3.2%)

H-40 - SARS-CoV-2's RBD-hACE2 fit was perfected by serial passage in cell culture or humanized-ACE2 animals

H-6 - The A-B intermediate haplotypes did not genuinely circulate in humans

Graph View