EpiStack

H-17 - SARS-CoV-2 most likely originated from a research-related incident rather than natural zoonosis (Weissman synthesis)

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Properties8
type
hypothesis
id
H-17
state
merged
question
Did SARS-CoV-2 arise from a research-related incident or from natural zoonotic spillover?
statement
Weissman's combined Bayesian analysis concludes a research-related (lab) origin of SARS-CoV-2 is substantially more probable than natural zoonotic spillover: point-estimate combined odds favour lab leak strongly (P(zoonosis) shrinking below about 1%; framings across versions range from roughly 4:1 up to about 165:1), pulled back toward single-digit to low-double-digit odds once realistic uncertainties are integrated.
merged_into
H-43 - Research-related origin of a laboratory-manipulated virus (engineered lab leak)
source
S-64 - Weissman's 'An Inconvenient Probability' Bayesian analysis
locator
Overall conclusion / summary (continuously-revised Substack, v5.x)

Top-line conclusion of the artifact; specific odds vary by version (continuously revised). Rests on no data of its own - its force comes from the factor arguments and prior below.

Graph View

Show model graphinteractive Bayesian view — separate from the graph above
added after the FLF submission deadline

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