EpiStack

O-49 - The 2021 US IC origins investigation was a split verdict- FBI lab (moderate), four agencies natural (low confidence), DOE then agnostic

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observation
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O-49
statement
President Biden's May-2021 IC origins investigation involved 8 of the 18 US intelligence agencies and produced a split verdict: the FBI assessed a lab leak (moderate confidence), four other agencies assessed a probable natural animal origin (low confidence), and the DOE was then agnostic — so after DOE's 2023 shift, 2 of the 8 involved agencies favor a lab origin.
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S-84 - FBI and DOE 2023 agency-confidence positions on a lab-associated origin
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NPR/Morning Edition interview with WSJ's Michael Gordon (27 Feb 2023)
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the FBI ... had assessed it a leak from the lab with moderate confidence. There were four other agencies that said it probably arose naturally from an animal with low confidence. And at that time, the Energy Department was agnostic.

Establishes the institutional headcount and confidence split: a minority lab-leaning (FBI moderate, DOE low), a plurality natural-leaning at low confidence, and the rest unresolved. 8 of 18 IC agencies were tasked because they had the requisite expertise.

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