O-49 - The 2021 US IC origins investigation was a split verdict- FBI lab (moderate), four agencies natural (low confidence), DOE then agnostic
Establishes the institutional headcount and confidence split: a minority lab-leaning (FBI moderate, DOE low), a plurality natural-leaning at low confidence, and the rest unresolved. 8 of 18 IC agencies were tasked because they had the requisite expertise.
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Why this is evidence
The 2021 IC split — FBI lab (moderate), four agencies natural (low), DOE then agnostic — is mixed institutional evidence: the natural-leaning plurality favours H-41, the FBI/DOE minority the lab members; a weak, near-balanced signal.