O-1 - White dwarfs of about one solar mass with Gyr ages and low magnetic fields are observed intact
The anchor bodies of the survival bound: dense enough to stop cosmic-ray-produced TeV black holes, old enough that any catastrophic accretion would already have destroyed them. Low magnetic field is required so that incoming UHECR primaries are not deflected/blocked before reaching the surface.
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Why this is evidence
H-7 (evaporation fails): cosmic-ray-produced TeV black holes stopped inside these dense WDs would, if they accrete catastrophically, have destroyed them within their Gyr ages — survival is then unexpected. H-4 (rapid evaporation): survival is certain. Discrimination is partial: it also depends on accretion being fast (HC-1’s question).
Likelihood
# E-7 (HC-2) — lone edge, one observation O-1 "old low-field WDs observed intact". Members in
# HC-2.hypotheses order: [H-4 evaporates near-instantly, H-7 evaporation fails]. Anchored on
# H-4 (rule 7). Covers O-1 alone for THIS cluster; the NS/exposure edges (E-8, E-9) are
# priced by their own unit.
lik_wd_H4 = 1.0 # anchor: rapid evaporation means no hole survives to be trapped — WD
# survival is certain, the observation carries no surprise.
lik_wd_H7 = 0.5 # the edge's discrimination is partial by construction: given evaporation
# fails, cosmic-ray holes ARE trapped in WDs (A-1, approved), but their
# destruction additionally needs fast accretion — HC-1's unresolved question.
# In the denser WD interior a larger slice of the a-priori accretion-rate
# range is fast (A-2's P1 direction), so survival is genuinely surprising
# but far from excluded under H-7: roughly even odds that the trapped
# holes accrete a WD within its Gyr age.
t_wd7 = 0.74 # = cap: trust_score of O-1's source S-1 (0.74). Same data as E-1's call
# (different cluster, so no double-cover); no named data-level weakness
# beyond what step 2 priced.
evidence("HC-2", ["O-1"], [lik_wd_H4, lik_wd_H7], t=t_wd7)