O-1 - Recomputed Monte Carlo p-values for the market as case center are marginal and weaken toward non-significance as the case sample shrinks
Stoyan & Chiu reconstruct Worobey et al.’s Monte Carlo procedure (1,000 inhomogeneous-Poisson simulations with intensity proportional to residential population density) and compute the p-value for the market being the “center” of the early-case cloud under three center definitions and four case subset sizes.
Center definition n=155 n=150 n=100 n=80 Centroid (mean) 0.030 0.024 0.060 0.122 Center-point 0.008 0.009 0.043 0.068 Mode 0.070 0.072 0.155 0.200 Significance is at best marginal at the full sample and disappears as the sample is trimmed, showing the market-as-center result is not robust. (Worobey’s own reported median market-to-case distance for the 155 cases was 16.11 km.)
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Why this is evidence
H-19 (the market clustering is an ascertainment artifact) predicts the market’s statistical centrality is weak and unstable; H-14/H-15 (the market was causally central) predict robust centrality. Marginal, sample-sensitive p-values favor H-19 over H-14/H-15.