Farm-to-table quantitative microbial risk assessment (five linked modules: egg production, shell-egg processing, egg-products processing, and preparation/consumption) estimating the baseline annual US human-illness burden from Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) in shell eggs. Baseline model: ~46.8 billion shell eggs produced/year, of which ~2.3 million (about 1 in 20,000) are estimated SE-contaminated internally at lay; this translates to a baseline estimate of ~661,633 SE illnesses/year (90% credible range ~126,374-1.7 million). Storage temperature and duration are dominant risk drivers in the model: eggs held 5 days at 65°F vs. 45°F show ~30-fold higher SE levels at consumption, translating to a ~47-fold higher salmonellosis risk; immediate post-lay cooling was estimated to reduce illnesses by ~12%. This risk assessment underpinned the 2009 FDA/FSIS Shell Egg Rule (refrigeration + testing/diversion requirements).
relevance_note: The quantitative regulatory burden-estimate primary behind the “eggs carry a real, non-trivial Salmonella illness burden” harm claim, and the basis for the storage/handling mitigations now standard in US egg supply chains — should be re-verified against the source PDF directly since this note relied on secondary summaries.